More Results, Closer Matches in Tests Now: But Will That Be Enough to Save Cricket’s 5-Day Format?

Even as Test cricket grapples with an existential crisis, an analysis of match results data reveals that the sport's longest format is a tighter contest now than it has been in a century.

By Meghnad Bose | 4 February 2024

Test cricket seems to be replete with such tight finishes nowadays. GIF Courtesy: Images by BCCI, ICC

On 28 January, as a young Shamar Joseph ripped through the Australian batting line-up and gave the West Indies a thrilling Test win Down Under, a visiting English side overcame their hosts India in the first Test of a promising series. Both matches could have swung either way until their final minutes. The eventual victory margins were a slender eight runs in Brisbane, and only 20 more in Hyderabad.

Test cricket seems to be replete with such tight finishes nowadays, and it led this correspondent to wonder, has men’s Test cricket become more exciting in recent years?

Are Tests More Exciting Now?

The first question facing us is: how do we determine or compare how exciting Test matches are over a period? Let’s look at this using two factors:

Are more Test matches ending with decisive results instead of draws? Granted that some close draws can be thrilling to watch, but we wouldn’t want every other five-day encounter ending with no winner, right? Our first factor is, therefore, the percentage of draws in Test matches played over a given time period.

How close were the matches? Did the team batting last win by one wicket or nine? Or did the team that bowled last win by 10 runs or 200? Typically, the smaller the margin of victory, the more exciting a match has been. Therefore, our second factor will be the margin of victory.

There’s also the question of ties - where no team wins, but the outcome is, by far, the most exciting in all of Test cricket. There have only been two tied Test matches in the 147-year history of the format! But without further ado, let’s get to our first factor - percentage of draws.

An analysis of all Test results, from the first Test in the history of international cricket played in 1877 between England and Australia, to the last Test of 2023, shows that there have been fewer draws in Tests played in this current decade than during any other decade in the past century.

In the 1980s, of the 266 Test matches played, 122 of them ended in draws. That’s 46.3% of all Tests played in the decade.

But in the 2010s, out of 433 Tests played, only 84 were drawn. That’s just 19.6%, less than one in five, of all Tests in the decade.

“There’s far more positive play (now), there’s more experimentation,” says veteran cricket writer Ayaz Memon. He adds, “The whole mindset is changing, thanks to limited overs cricket, especially T20 cricket.”

Amit Sinha, co-author of ‘Do Different: The Untold Dhoni’, a book on one of world cricket’s most successful captains, says that along with the game having become faster, “captains have gotten more result-oriented.” He adds, “Earlier, captains were happy with draws. Now, they are not.”

Sinha says that pitches too have had a role to play in this trend of increasing results, “Test cricket needs an artificial ventilator system, so the pitches are also more result-oriented now. They have something for both teams. When there is more likelihood of getting a result, you’d want to watch that more.”

“It’s still within the larger conversation of Test cricket needing to be saved, of being something that brings in the crowds – so we’re seeing less of placid tracks, more sporting pitches, and less snoozefests,” says Amit Sinha.

On our first factor then, the percentage of results in Test matches has definitely increased by leaps and bounds in recent times. Now, let’s get to the victory margins.

Tighter Matches Too

To measure the closeness of Test matches, this correspondent developed the following rubric - matching victory margins to points on a scale of 1 to 10.

At the top of the table, with 10 points out 10, are the two tied Tests - the closest encounters in the history of Test cricket.

At the bottom are draws, with each draw earning a solitary point on the closeness index.

At two points out of 10 are matches that ended with an innings defeat, contests that are thoroughly one-sided affairs.

From four to nine points are matches with varying victory margins, either in terms of runs or wickets. Matches won by a margin of more than 200 runs, or by nine or 10 wickets in hand, receive four points on the closeness index. And matches won by less than 25 runs, or by only one wicket in hand, are right up there on the index, at nine points out of 10.

Here’s the full closeness index.

Closeness Score	Match Result
10	Tied test
9	Win by less than 25 runs, or by 1 wicket
8	Win by 25 to 49 runs, or by 2 wickets
7	Win by 50 to 99 runs, or by 3 to 4 wickets
6	Win by 100 to 149 runs, or by 5 to 6 wickets
5	Win by 150 to 199 runs, or by 7 to 8 wickets
4	Win by 200 runs or more, or by 9 to 10 wickets
2	Win by an innings
1	Draw

It’s worth mentioning here that not all draws are boring matches. Close draws, where the team batting last almost reached the target or were close to getting bowled out, definitely make for exciting cricket. A limitation of the metric above is that it relegates all draws to one point. A more advanced version of the rubric could give a close draw some additional points, depending on how close the match was to a result. But for now, this rubric is what we’re operating with, and here are the results from the number-crunching.

The closeness score average for Test matches this decade is 4.0, a mark so high that it was last beaten in the 1910s.

Since the 1980s, the average closeness score has increased every decade, from 2.9 in the 80s to 3.4 in the 90s, 3.6 in the 2000s, 3.9 in the 2010s and now, 4.0 in this decade.

So, you weren’t imagining it - Test cricket has indeed become a closer contest in recent times, and quite starkly so. But is there a correlation between Test matches getting more exciting and a greater enthusiasm for the format among viewers?

“Of course, there is a correlation,” says Memon. “As you get more exciting matches, people will certainly follow it."

"Especially after Bazball has come into play, you’re getting 350 to 400 runs in a day, it’s like a ODI and a T20 in one day," says Ayaz Memon.

“Emboldened by T20, they bring the same thing to Test cricket,” says former first-class cricketer Venkatraman Ramnarayan. “Passion, aggression, and innovation have grown,” he adds.

Memon says, “The whole game’s ethos has become more exciting.”

Will This Be Enough to Save Test Cricket?

Test cricket continues to face an existential crisis. The rising sway of T20 franchise leagues across the world have caused some national cricket boards to deprioritize Test cricket.

For example, Cricket South Africa picked a second-string squad for their tour of New Zealand, with barely any players of their first-choice squad named in the touring party. The reason for this selection is that South Africa’s domestic T20 league, SA20, is set to clash with the tour of New Zealand. Posting an image of the South African squad announcement on Instagram, former Australian captain Steve Waugh asked, “Is this a defining moment in the death of Test cricket?"

"History and tradition must count for something. If we stand by and allow profits to be the defining criteria, the legacy of Bradman, Grace and Sobers will be irrelevant,” wrote Steve Waugh.

Last year, the English and Wales Cricket Board had stated that franchise leagues posed a threat to its future.

Sinha says, “Boards don’t have money to organize Test matches, where there is no return on investment.”

He adds that the situation is worse for the smaller cricket boards, “If people are not coming to watch Test cricket in Sri Lanka or West Indies, when these boards don’t have enough resources, how do you expect them to continue playing more Test cricket?” asks Sinha.

Ramnarayan, however, strikes a chord of hope, “All the exciting batsmen and bowlers, and also the World Test Championship, will keep Test cricket alive. Pink-ball cricket too.”

He says, “All these factors can and will, I hope, bring the crowds back.”

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View the full methodology and code on GitHub here, and take a look at my other data stories here.